// === Description === // Enterprise-Risk-Modell: Welche Faktoren koennen einen signifikanten // Aktienkursverfall eines boersennotierten Unternehmens ausloesen // (Definition hier: Kurseinbruch von mindestens 15 Prozent innerhalb // eines kurzen Beobachtungsfensters)? Das Modell buendelt acht Risiko- // Cluster: Fundamentaldaten, Operations, Governance, Marktdynamik, // Makrooekonomie, Regulatorik, ESG / Reputation und externe Schocks. // Jeder Cluster liefert ein Preis-Signal an einen Aggregator // (PriceFormation), der das TLE ausloest. Rahmenwerke: COSO ERM 2017, // ISO 31000, SEC Form 10-K Item 1A, EU CSRD / ESRS. Hinweis: // illustrative Strukturdemo, nicht kalibriertes Finanzrisiko-Modell. // === End Description === // FtaDSL StockPrice - Enterprise Risk Model for a Significant Share Price Drop // // Author: Wolfgang Freese, Overath (Germany) // April 2026 // Version 1.0 // // Domain: Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) / Investor Risk // // System Scope: // A publicly listed company is modelled as a "system" whose aggregate // output is the share price. The Top-Level Event (TLE) is a significant // drop of the share price (>= 15 % within a short observation window). // // The model aggregates eight risk clusters, each of which can on its // own trigger a significant price decline: Fundamentals, Operations, // Governance, Market Dynamics, Macro, Regulatory, ESG / Reputation, // and External Shocks. Each cluster is decomposed into leaf risk // drivers that emit fault signals into a cluster aggregator. The // aggregators feed a PriceFormation stage which determines the final // price movement. // // This is NOT a safety-relevant model in the sense of ISO 26262 or // IEC 61508 - there is no SIL / ASIL classification. It is an ERM // structural model in the spirit of COSO ERM 2017 and ISO 31000. // // Fault Mode Catalogue: // Price_Drop - significant (>= 15 % short-window) price decline // Revenue_Miss - revenue below guidance or consensus // Margin_Compression - operating margin materially below plan // Guidance_Miss - forward guidance reduced or withdrawn // Impairment_Charge - material asset impairment / goodwill write-down // Solvency_Concern - balance-sheet / liquidity stress // Management_Turnover - CxO departure, board tension, succession gap // Fraud_Exposed - accounting irregularity / disclosure fraud // Regulatory_Action - antitrust / sanctions / license / tax action // Rating_Downgrade - analyst / credit / ESG downgrade // Liquidity_Dry - trading liquidity dries up, forced selling // Macro_Adverse - rate / inflation / GDP / FX / commodity shock // Reputation_Hit - public trust loss, boycott, backlash // Operational_Disruption - supply, production, recall, cyber disruption // ESG_Failure - ESG rating / greenwashing / human rights // Shock_External - cyber, pandemic, disaster, geopolitics // // Top Level Event (TLE): // StockPrice_SignificantDrop - the StockPrice_Out port carries a // Price_Drop fault whenever any cluster path propagates a Price_Drop // signal through the PriceFormation stage. Order-1 minimal cut sets // expose single-cluster triggers; higher orders expose correlated // multi-cluster scenarios. // // Applicable standards / frameworks: // COSO ERM 2017 - Enterprise Risk Management Integrated Framework // ISO 31000:2018 - Risk management - Guidelines // SEC Form 10-K Item 1A - Risk Factors Disclosure // EU CSRD / ESRS - Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive // IOSCO Principles - Securities Markets Risk Disclosure // // Redundancy-style AND gates (co-occurrence required): // Accounting_Integrity : AccountingIrregularity AND AuditorQualification // Short_Seller_Pressure : ShortReport AND FailureToRefute // Guidance_Delivery_Failure : Revenue_Miss AND Margin_Compression // Recall_Material : ProductQuality_Issue AND MassRecall_Trigger // Cyber_Material : CyberAttack AND DataExfiltration // Ratings_Cascade : AnalystDowngrade AND CreditRatingDowngrade // License_Loss : LicenseAction AND AppealRejected // Greenwashing_Material : GreenwashingClaim AND RegulatorProbe FUNCTION StockPrice INPUT Macro_Rates INPUT Macro_Inflation INPUT Macro_GDP INPUT Macro_FX INPUT Macro_Commodity INPUT Macro_CreditSpread INPUT Peer_Group_Weakness INPUT Index_Membership INPUT External_Cyber INPUT External_Pandemic INPUT External_Disaster INPUT External_Geopolitics INPUT External_Terror INPUT External_SupplyDisruption OUTPUT StockPrice_Out // ========================================================= // CLUSTER 1 - Fundamentals // ========================================================= FUNCTION Revenue_TopLine OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION OperatingMargin OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION EarningsPerShare INPUT RevIn INPUT MarIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Revenue_Miss.OR(RevIn.Revenue_Miss; MarIn.Margin_Compression) END FUNCTION FUNCTION FreeCashFlow OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION BalanceSheet_Solvency INPUT FcfIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Solvency_Concern.FcfIn.Solvency_Concern END FUNCTION FUNCTION Dividend_Sustainability INPUT FcfIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Solvency_Concern.FcfIn.Solvency_Concern END FUNCTION FUNCTION Guidance_Delivery INPUT RevIn INPUT MarIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Guidance_Miss.AND(RevIn.Revenue_Miss; MarIn.Margin_Compression) END FUNCTION FUNCTION Asset_Impairment OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Working_Capital OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION AccountingIrregularity OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION AuditorQualification OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Accounting_Integrity INPUT IrrIn INPUT AudIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Fraud_Exposed.AND(IrrIn.Fraud_Exposed; AudIn.Fraud_Exposed) END FUNCTION FUNCTION Fundamentals INPUT EpsIn INPUT BsIn INPUT DivIn INPUT GuidIn INPUT ImpIn INPUT WcIn INPUT AccIn OUTPUT PriceSignal OIM PriceSignal.Price_Drop.OR(EpsIn.Revenue_Miss; BsIn.Solvency_Concern; DivIn.Solvency_Concern; GuidIn.Guidance_Miss; ImpIn.Impairment_Charge; WcIn.Solvency_Concern; AccIn.Fraud_Exposed) END FUNCTION // ========================================================= // CLUSTER 2 - Operations // ========================================================= FUNCTION Supply_Chain_Continuity OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Production_Capacity OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Product_Quality OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION MassRecall_Trigger OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Product_Recall INPUT QualIn INPUT TrigIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Operational_Disruption.AND(QualIn.Operational_Disruption; TrigIn.Operational_Disruption) END FUNCTION FUNCTION Customer_Retention OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Market_Share INPUT CustIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Revenue_Miss.CustIn.Revenue_Miss END FUNCTION FUNCTION RnD_Pipeline OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Cybersecurity_Ops OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Operations INPUT ScIn INPUT ProdIn INPUT RecIn INPUT MsIn INPUT RndIn INPUT CybIn OUTPUT PriceSignal OIM PriceSignal.Price_Drop.OR(ScIn.Operational_Disruption; ProdIn.Operational_Disruption; RecIn.Operational_Disruption; MsIn.Revenue_Miss; RndIn.Revenue_Miss; CybIn.Operational_Disruption) END FUNCTION // ========================================================= // CLUSTER 3 - Governance // ========================================================= FUNCTION CEO_Credibility OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION CFO_Departure OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Board_Confidence INPUT CeoIn INPUT CfoIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Management_Turnover.OR(CeoIn.Management_Turnover; CfoIn.Management_Turnover) END FUNCTION FUNCTION Insider_Selling OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION MnA_Execution OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Fraud_Allegation OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION ShortReport OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION FailureToRefute OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION ShortSeller_Pressure INPUT ShIn INPUT RefIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Reputation_Hit.AND(ShIn.Reputation_Hit; RefIn.Reputation_Hit) END FUNCTION FUNCTION Governance INPUT BoardIn INPUT InsIn INPUT MnaIn INPUT FrAllIn INPUT ShPrIn OUTPUT PriceSignal OIM PriceSignal.Price_Drop.OR(BoardIn.Management_Turnover; InsIn.Management_Turnover; MnaIn.Impairment_Charge; FrAllIn.Fraud_Exposed; ShPrIn.Reputation_Hit) END FUNCTION // ========================================================= // CLUSTER 4 - MarketDynamics // ========================================================= FUNCTION AnalystDowngrade OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION CreditRatingDowngrade OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Ratings_Cascade INPUT AnIn INPUT CrIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Rating_Downgrade.AND(AnIn.Rating_Downgrade; CrIn.Rating_Downgrade) END FUNCTION FUNCTION Institutional_Outflow OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Short_Interest_Spike OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Options_Crash OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Index_Deletion INPUT IdxIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Liquidity_Dry.IdxIn.Liquidity_Dry END FUNCTION FUNCTION Momentum_Break OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION PeerGroup_Weakness_Fn INPUT PeerIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Liquidity_Dry.PeerIn.Liquidity_Dry END FUNCTION FUNCTION MarketDynamics INPUT RcIn INPUT IoIn INPUT SiIn INPUT OpIn INPUT IdIn INPUT MoIn INPUT PeIn OUTPUT PriceSignal OIM PriceSignal.Price_Drop.OR(RcIn.Rating_Downgrade; IoIn.Liquidity_Dry; SiIn.Liquidity_Dry; OpIn.Liquidity_Dry; IdIn.Liquidity_Dry; MoIn.Liquidity_Dry; PeIn.Liquidity_Dry) END FUNCTION // ========================================================= // CLUSTER 5 - Macro // ========================================================= FUNCTION Interest_Rate_Spike INPUT RateIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Macro_Adverse.RateIn.Macro_Adverse END FUNCTION FUNCTION Inflation_Surprise INPUT InfIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Macro_Adverse.InfIn.Macro_Adverse END FUNCTION FUNCTION GDP_Contraction INPUT GdpIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Macro_Adverse.GdpIn.Macro_Adverse END FUNCTION FUNCTION FX_Shock INPUT FxIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Macro_Adverse.FxIn.Macro_Adverse END FUNCTION FUNCTION Commodity_Shock INPUT CommIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Macro_Adverse.CommIn.Macro_Adverse END FUNCTION FUNCTION Credit_Spread_Widening INPUT CsIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Macro_Adverse.CsIn.Macro_Adverse END FUNCTION FUNCTION Macro INPUT IrIn INPUT InIn INPUT GdIn INPUT FxIn INPUT CoIn INPUT CrIn OUTPUT PriceSignal OIM PriceSignal.Price_Drop.OR(IrIn.Macro_Adverse; InIn.Macro_Adverse; GdIn.Macro_Adverse; FxIn.Macro_Adverse; CoIn.Macro_Adverse; CrIn.Macro_Adverse) END FUNCTION // ========================================================= // CLUSTER 6 - Regulatory // ========================================================= FUNCTION Antitrust_Action OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Tax_Policy_Adverse OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Trade_Tariff OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Sanctions_Exposure OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Environmental_Regulation OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Litigation_Adverse OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION LicenseAction OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION AppealRejected OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION License_Revocation INPUT LicIn INPUT AppIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Regulatory_Action.AND(LicIn.Regulatory_Action; AppIn.Regulatory_Action) END FUNCTION FUNCTION Regulatory INPUT AtIn INPUT TxIn INPUT TrIn INPUT SaIn INPUT EnIn INPUT LiIn INPUT LrIn OUTPUT PriceSignal OIM PriceSignal.Price_Drop.OR(AtIn.Regulatory_Action; TxIn.Regulatory_Action; TrIn.Regulatory_Action; SaIn.Regulatory_Action; EnIn.Regulatory_Action; LiIn.Regulatory_Action; LrIn.Regulatory_Action) END FUNCTION // ========================================================= // CLUSTER 7 - ESGReputation // ========================================================= FUNCTION ESG_Rating_Downgrade OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Social_Media_Backlash OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Boycott_Activation INPUT SmbIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Reputation_Hit.SmbIn.Reputation_Hit END FUNCTION FUNCTION GreenwashingClaim OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION RegulatorProbe OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Greenwashing_Material INPUT GwIn INPUT RpIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.ESG_Failure.AND(GwIn.ESG_Failure; RpIn.ESG_Failure) END FUNCTION FUNCTION Human_Rights_Breach OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION Data_Privacy_Breach OUTPUT Signal END FUNCTION FUNCTION ESGReputation INPUT EsgIn INPUT BoIn INPUT GwMaIn INPUT HrIn INPUT DpIn OUTPUT PriceSignal OIM PriceSignal.Price_Drop.OR(EsgIn.ESG_Failure; BoIn.Reputation_Hit; GwMaIn.ESG_Failure; HrIn.ESG_Failure; DpIn.Reputation_Hit) END FUNCTION // ========================================================= // CLUSTER 8 - ExternalShocks // ========================================================= FUNCTION CyberAttack INPUT CyIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Shock_External.CyIn.Shock_External END FUNCTION FUNCTION DataExfiltration INPUT CyIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Shock_External.CyIn.Shock_External END FUNCTION FUNCTION Cyber_Attack_Major INPUT CaIn INPUT DeIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Shock_External.AND(CaIn.Shock_External; DeIn.Shock_External) END FUNCTION FUNCTION Pandemic_Exposure INPUT PaIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Shock_External.PaIn.Shock_External END FUNCTION FUNCTION Natural_Disaster INPUT NdIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Shock_External.NdIn.Shock_External END FUNCTION FUNCTION Geopolitical_Conflict INPUT GpIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Shock_External.GpIn.Shock_External END FUNCTION FUNCTION Terror_Attack INPUT TeIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Shock_External.TeIn.Shock_External END FUNCTION FUNCTION Supply_Disruption_Exogenous INPUT SdIn OUTPUT Signal OIM Signal.Shock_External.SdIn.Shock_External END FUNCTION FUNCTION ExternalShocks INPUT CamIn INPUT PaIn INPUT NdIn INPUT GpIn INPUT TeIn INPUT SdIn OUTPUT PriceSignal OIM PriceSignal.Price_Drop.OR(CamIn.Shock_External; PaIn.Shock_External; NdIn.Shock_External; GpIn.Shock_External; TeIn.Shock_External; SdIn.Shock_External) END FUNCTION // ========================================================= // PriceFormation - aggregates all 8 cluster signals // ========================================================= FUNCTION PriceFormation INPUT FundIn INPUT OpsIn INPUT GovIn INPUT MktIn INPUT MacIn INPUT RegIn INPUT EsgIn INPUT ExtIn OUTPUT PriceFormationOut OIM PriceFormationOut.Price_Drop.OR(FundIn.Price_Drop; OpsIn.Price_Drop; GovIn.Price_Drop; MktIn.Price_Drop; MacIn.Price_Drop; RegIn.Price_Drop; EsgIn.Price_Drop; ExtIn.Price_Drop) END FUNCTION // ========================================================= // INT - Signal Interfaces // ========================================================= // --- Fundamentals cluster (internal wiring) --- INT ifRevToEps.Revenue_TopLine.OUT.Signal.EarningsPerShare.IN.RevIn INT ifMarToEps.OperatingMargin.OUT.Signal.EarningsPerShare.IN.MarIn INT ifFcfToBs.FreeCashFlow.OUT.Signal.BalanceSheet_Solvency.IN.FcfIn INT ifFcfToDiv.FreeCashFlow.OUT.Signal.Dividend_Sustainability.IN.FcfIn INT ifRevToGuid.Revenue_TopLine.OUT.Signal.Guidance_Delivery.IN.RevIn INT ifMarToGuid.OperatingMargin.OUT.Signal.Guidance_Delivery.IN.MarIn INT ifIrrToAcc.AccountingIrregularity.OUT.Signal.Accounting_Integrity.IN.IrrIn INT ifAudToAcc.AuditorQualification.OUT.Signal.Accounting_Integrity.IN.AudIn INT ifEpsToFund.EarningsPerShare.OUT.Signal.Fundamentals.IN.EpsIn INT ifBsToFund.BalanceSheet_Solvency.OUT.Signal.Fundamentals.IN.BsIn INT ifDivToFund.Dividend_Sustainability.OUT.Signal.Fundamentals.IN.DivIn INT ifGuidToFund.Guidance_Delivery.OUT.Signal.Fundamentals.IN.GuidIn INT ifImpToFund.Asset_Impairment.OUT.Signal.Fundamentals.IN.ImpIn INT ifWcToFund.Working_Capital.OUT.Signal.Fundamentals.IN.WcIn INT ifAccToFund.Accounting_Integrity.OUT.Signal.Fundamentals.IN.AccIn // --- Operations cluster (internal wiring) --- INT ifQualToRec.Product_Quality.OUT.Signal.Product_Recall.IN.QualIn INT ifTrigToRec.MassRecall_Trigger.OUT.Signal.Product_Recall.IN.TrigIn INT ifCustToMs.Customer_Retention.OUT.Signal.Market_Share.IN.CustIn INT ifScToOps.Supply_Chain_Continuity.OUT.Signal.Operations.IN.ScIn INT ifProdToOps.Production_Capacity.OUT.Signal.Operations.IN.ProdIn INT ifRecToOps.Product_Recall.OUT.Signal.Operations.IN.RecIn INT ifMsToOps.Market_Share.OUT.Signal.Operations.IN.MsIn INT ifRndToOps.RnD_Pipeline.OUT.Signal.Operations.IN.RndIn INT ifCybToOps.Cybersecurity_Ops.OUT.Signal.Operations.IN.CybIn // --- Governance cluster (internal wiring) --- INT ifCeoToBoard.CEO_Credibility.OUT.Signal.Board_Confidence.IN.CeoIn INT ifCfoToBoard.CFO_Departure.OUT.Signal.Board_Confidence.IN.CfoIn INT ifShToShPr.ShortReport.OUT.Signal.ShortSeller_Pressure.IN.ShIn INT ifRefToShPr.FailureToRefute.OUT.Signal.ShortSeller_Pressure.IN.RefIn INT ifBoardToGov.Board_Confidence.OUT.Signal.Governance.IN.BoardIn INT ifInsToGov.Insider_Selling.OUT.Signal.Governance.IN.InsIn INT ifMnaToGov.MnA_Execution.OUT.Signal.Governance.IN.MnaIn INT ifFrAllToGov.Fraud_Allegation.OUT.Signal.Governance.IN.FrAllIn INT ifShPrToGov.ShortSeller_Pressure.OUT.Signal.Governance.IN.ShPrIn // --- MarketDynamics cluster (internal wiring) --- INT ifAnToRc.AnalystDowngrade.OUT.Signal.Ratings_Cascade.IN.AnIn INT ifCrToRc.CreditRatingDowngrade.OUT.Signal.Ratings_Cascade.IN.CrIn INT ifIdxToId.StockPrice.IN.Index_Membership.Index_Deletion.IN.IdxIn INT ifPeerToPg.StockPrice.IN.Peer_Group_Weakness.PeerGroup_Weakness_Fn.IN.PeerIn INT ifRcToMkt.Ratings_Cascade.OUT.Signal.MarketDynamics.IN.RcIn INT ifIoToMkt.Institutional_Outflow.OUT.Signal.MarketDynamics.IN.IoIn INT ifSiToMkt.Short_Interest_Spike.OUT.Signal.MarketDynamics.IN.SiIn INT ifOpToMkt.Options_Crash.OUT.Signal.MarketDynamics.IN.OpIn INT ifIdToMkt.Index_Deletion.OUT.Signal.MarketDynamics.IN.IdIn INT ifMoToMkt.Momentum_Break.OUT.Signal.MarketDynamics.IN.MoIn INT ifPgToMkt.PeerGroup_Weakness_Fn.OUT.Signal.MarketDynamics.IN.PeIn // --- Macro cluster (from StockPrice top-level inputs) --- INT ifRateToIrs.StockPrice.IN.Macro_Rates.Interest_Rate_Spike.IN.RateIn INT ifInfToInfS.StockPrice.IN.Macro_Inflation.Inflation_Surprise.IN.InfIn INT ifGdpToGdpC.StockPrice.IN.Macro_GDP.GDP_Contraction.IN.GdpIn INT ifFxToFxS.StockPrice.IN.Macro_FX.FX_Shock.IN.FxIn INT ifCommToComS.StockPrice.IN.Macro_Commodity.Commodity_Shock.IN.CommIn INT ifCsToCsW.StockPrice.IN.Macro_CreditSpread.Credit_Spread_Widening.IN.CsIn INT ifIrToMac.Interest_Rate_Spike.OUT.Signal.Macro.IN.IrIn INT ifInToMac.Inflation_Surprise.OUT.Signal.Macro.IN.InIn INT ifGdToMac.GDP_Contraction.OUT.Signal.Macro.IN.GdIn INT ifFxToMac.FX_Shock.OUT.Signal.Macro.IN.FxIn INT ifCoToMac.Commodity_Shock.OUT.Signal.Macro.IN.CoIn INT ifCrmToMac.Credit_Spread_Widening.OUT.Signal.Macro.IN.CrIn // --- Regulatory cluster (internal wiring) --- INT ifLicToLr.LicenseAction.OUT.Signal.License_Revocation.IN.LicIn INT ifAppToLr.AppealRejected.OUT.Signal.License_Revocation.IN.AppIn INT ifAtToReg.Antitrust_Action.OUT.Signal.Regulatory.IN.AtIn INT ifTxToReg.Tax_Policy_Adverse.OUT.Signal.Regulatory.IN.TxIn INT ifTrToReg.Trade_Tariff.OUT.Signal.Regulatory.IN.TrIn INT ifSaToReg.Sanctions_Exposure.OUT.Signal.Regulatory.IN.SaIn INT ifEnToReg.Environmental_Regulation.OUT.Signal.Regulatory.IN.EnIn INT ifLiToReg.Litigation_Adverse.OUT.Signal.Regulatory.IN.LiIn INT ifLrToReg.License_Revocation.OUT.Signal.Regulatory.IN.LrIn // --- ESG cluster (internal wiring) --- INT ifSmbToBo.Social_Media_Backlash.OUT.Signal.Boycott_Activation.IN.SmbIn INT ifGwToGwMa.GreenwashingClaim.OUT.Signal.Greenwashing_Material.IN.GwIn INT ifRpToGwMa.RegulatorProbe.OUT.Signal.Greenwashing_Material.IN.RpIn INT ifEsgToEsg.ESG_Rating_Downgrade.OUT.Signal.ESGReputation.IN.EsgIn INT ifBoToEsg.Boycott_Activation.OUT.Signal.ESGReputation.IN.BoIn INT ifGwMaToEsg.Greenwashing_Material.OUT.Signal.ESGReputation.IN.GwMaIn INT ifHrToEsg.Human_Rights_Breach.OUT.Signal.ESGReputation.IN.HrIn INT ifDpToEsg.Data_Privacy_Breach.OUT.Signal.ESGReputation.IN.DpIn // --- ExternalShocks cluster (from StockPrice top-level inputs) --- INT ifExtCyToCa.StockPrice.IN.External_Cyber.CyberAttack.IN.CyIn INT ifExtCyToDe.StockPrice.IN.External_Cyber.DataExfiltration.IN.CyIn INT ifCaToCam.CyberAttack.OUT.Signal.Cyber_Attack_Major.IN.CaIn INT ifDeToCam.DataExfiltration.OUT.Signal.Cyber_Attack_Major.IN.DeIn INT ifExtPaToPa.StockPrice.IN.External_Pandemic.Pandemic_Exposure.IN.PaIn INT ifExtNdToNd.StockPrice.IN.External_Disaster.Natural_Disaster.IN.NdIn INT ifExtGpToGp.StockPrice.IN.External_Geopolitics.Geopolitical_Conflict.IN.GpIn INT ifExtTeToTe.StockPrice.IN.External_Terror.Terror_Attack.IN.TeIn INT ifExtSdToSd.StockPrice.IN.External_SupplyDisruption.Supply_Disruption_Exogenous.IN.SdIn INT ifCamToExt.Cyber_Attack_Major.OUT.Signal.ExternalShocks.IN.CamIn INT ifPaToExt.Pandemic_Exposure.OUT.Signal.ExternalShocks.IN.PaIn INT ifNdToExt.Natural_Disaster.OUT.Signal.ExternalShocks.IN.NdIn INT ifGpToExt.Geopolitical_Conflict.OUT.Signal.ExternalShocks.IN.GpIn INT ifTeToExt.Terror_Attack.OUT.Signal.ExternalShocks.IN.TeIn INT ifSdToExt.Supply_Disruption_Exogenous.OUT.Signal.ExternalShocks.IN.SdIn // --- Cluster aggregators to PriceFormation --- INT ifFundToPf.Fundamentals.OUT.PriceSignal.PriceFormation.IN.FundIn INT ifOpsToPf.Operations.OUT.PriceSignal.PriceFormation.IN.OpsIn INT ifGovToPf.Governance.OUT.PriceSignal.PriceFormation.IN.GovIn INT ifMktToPf.MarketDynamics.OUT.PriceSignal.PriceFormation.IN.MktIn INT ifMacToPf.Macro.OUT.PriceSignal.PriceFormation.IN.MacIn INT ifRegToPf.Regulatory.OUT.PriceSignal.PriceFormation.IN.RegIn INT ifEsgToPf.ESGReputation.OUT.PriceSignal.PriceFormation.IN.EsgIn INT ifExtToPf.ExternalShocks.OUT.PriceSignal.PriceFormation.IN.ExtIn // --- PriceFormation to StockPrice top-level OUTPUT --- INT ifPfToOut.PriceFormation.OUT.PriceFormationOut.StockPrice.OUT.StockPrice_Out // ========================================================= // TLE - Top Level Event (Single-Literal form) // ========================================================= TLE StockPrice_SignificantDrop.StockPrice_Out.Price_Drop END FUNCTION // ============================================================ // Fault Rates // ISF: normal(mu=1.0e-6, sigma=2.5e-7), clamp [3e-7, 2e-6] // SF: normal(mu=2.5e-7, sigma=1.375e-7), clamp [5e-8, 5e-7] // TF: normal(mu=5.0e-8, sigma=1.5e-8), clamp [1e-8, 1e-7] // ============================================================ // --- ISF (top-level external inputs) --- ISF StockPrice.Macro_Rates.Macro_Adverse 1.0847e-06 ISF StockPrice.Macro_Inflation.Macro_Adverse 1.2413e-06 ISF StockPrice.Macro_GDP.Macro_Adverse 9.2715e-07 ISF StockPrice.Macro_FX.Macro_Adverse 7.6532e-07 ISF StockPrice.Macro_Commodity.Macro_Adverse 1.1059e-06 ISF StockPrice.Macro_CreditSpread.Macro_Adverse 1.3218e-06 ISF StockPrice.Peer_Group_Weakness.Liquidity_Dry 8.4119e-07 ISF StockPrice.Index_Membership.Liquidity_Dry 6.1327e-07 ISF StockPrice.External_Cyber.Shock_External 1.4087e-06 ISF StockPrice.External_Pandemic.Shock_External 5.2441e-07 ISF StockPrice.External_Disaster.Shock_External 6.8552e-07 ISF StockPrice.External_Geopolitics.Shock_External 1.1874e-06 ISF StockPrice.External_Terror.Shock_External 4.3712e-07 ISF StockPrice.External_SupplyDisruption.Shock_External 9.6201e-07 // --- SF (systemic rates of leaf and aggregator functions) --- // Fundamentals SF Revenue_TopLine.Signal.Revenue_Miss 3.1284e-07 SF OperatingMargin.Signal.Margin_Compression 2.7519e-07 SF EarningsPerShare.Signal.Revenue_Miss 1.4762e-07 SF FreeCashFlow.Signal.Solvency_Concern 3.8043e-07 SF BalanceSheet_Solvency.Signal.Solvency_Concern 2.1856e-07 SF Dividend_Sustainability.Signal.Solvency_Concern 1.6329e-07 SF Guidance_Delivery.Signal.Guidance_Miss 2.4618e-07 SF Asset_Impairment.Signal.Impairment_Charge 4.0712e-07 SF Working_Capital.Signal.Solvency_Concern 2.9135e-07 SF AccountingIrregularity.Signal.Fraud_Exposed 1.1874e-07 SF AuditorQualification.Signal.Fraud_Exposed 9.4061e-08 SF Accounting_Integrity.Signal.Fraud_Exposed 7.2158e-08 SF Fundamentals.PriceSignal.Price_Drop 2.0483e-07 // Operations SF Supply_Chain_Continuity.Signal.Operational_Disruption 3.3412e-07 SF Production_Capacity.Signal.Operational_Disruption 2.8067e-07 SF Product_Quality.Signal.Operational_Disruption 2.6319e-07 SF MassRecall_Trigger.Signal.Operational_Disruption 1.5708e-07 SF Product_Recall.Signal.Operational_Disruption 1.0245e-07 SF Customer_Retention.Signal.Revenue_Miss 3.0971e-07 SF Market_Share.Signal.Revenue_Miss 2.3854e-07 SF RnD_Pipeline.Signal.Revenue_Miss 3.6128e-07 SF Cybersecurity_Ops.Signal.Operational_Disruption 4.1537e-07 SF Operations.PriceSignal.Price_Drop 2.2415e-07 // Governance SF CEO_Credibility.Signal.Management_Turnover 2.5793e-07 SF CFO_Departure.Signal.Management_Turnover 1.9821e-07 SF Board_Confidence.Signal.Management_Turnover 1.4075e-07 SF Insider_Selling.Signal.Management_Turnover 3.1642e-07 SF MnA_Execution.Signal.Impairment_Charge 2.8216e-07 SF Fraud_Allegation.Signal.Fraud_Exposed 1.7043e-07 SF ShortReport.Signal.Reputation_Hit 3.4782e-07 SF FailureToRefute.Signal.Reputation_Hit 2.1319e-07 SF ShortSeller_Pressure.Signal.Reputation_Hit 8.6041e-08 SF Governance.PriceSignal.Price_Drop 1.8275e-07 // MarketDynamics SF AnalystDowngrade.Signal.Rating_Downgrade 3.7125e-07 SF CreditRatingDowngrade.Signal.Rating_Downgrade 2.4638e-07 SF Ratings_Cascade.Signal.Rating_Downgrade 9.8512e-08 SF Institutional_Outflow.Signal.Liquidity_Dry 2.9047e-07 SF Short_Interest_Spike.Signal.Liquidity_Dry 1.7283e-07 SF Options_Crash.Signal.Liquidity_Dry 2.1419e-07 SF Index_Deletion.Signal.Liquidity_Dry 1.5076e-07 SF Momentum_Break.Signal.Liquidity_Dry 3.3951e-07 SF PeerGroup_Weakness_Fn.Signal.Liquidity_Dry 1.2684e-07 SF MarketDynamics.PriceSignal.Price_Drop 2.1582e-07 // Macro (subsystems) SF Interest_Rate_Spike.Signal.Macro_Adverse 1.3415e-07 SF Inflation_Surprise.Signal.Macro_Adverse 1.9827e-07 SF GDP_Contraction.Signal.Macro_Adverse 2.3649e-07 SF FX_Shock.Signal.Macro_Adverse 1.7241e-07 SF Commodity_Shock.Signal.Macro_Adverse 2.6517e-07 SF Credit_Spread_Widening.Signal.Macro_Adverse 1.5089e-07 SF Macro.PriceSignal.Price_Drop 2.4183e-07 // Regulatory SF Antitrust_Action.Signal.Regulatory_Action 2.8156e-07 SF Tax_Policy_Adverse.Signal.Regulatory_Action 3.1427e-07 SF Trade_Tariff.Signal.Regulatory_Action 2.5048e-07 SF Sanctions_Exposure.Signal.Regulatory_Action 1.8619e-07 SF Environmental_Regulation.Signal.Regulatory_Action 3.4702e-07 SF Litigation_Adverse.Signal.Regulatory_Action 4.0315e-07 SF LicenseAction.Signal.Regulatory_Action 2.1784e-07 SF AppealRejected.Signal.Regulatory_Action 1.6452e-07 SF License_Revocation.Signal.Regulatory_Action 7.8214e-08 SF Regulatory.PriceSignal.Price_Drop 1.9648e-07 // ESG SF ESG_Rating_Downgrade.Signal.ESG_Failure 2.7581e-07 SF Social_Media_Backlash.Signal.Reputation_Hit 3.6049e-07 SF Boycott_Activation.Signal.Reputation_Hit 2.0713e-07 SF GreenwashingClaim.Signal.ESG_Failure 1.4286e-07 SF RegulatorProbe.Signal.ESG_Failure 1.8947e-07 SF Greenwashing_Material.Signal.ESG_Failure 8.2516e-08 SF Human_Rights_Breach.Signal.ESG_Failure 2.3415e-07 SF Data_Privacy_Breach.Signal.Reputation_Hit 3.0827e-07 SF ESGReputation.PriceSignal.Price_Drop 2.0249e-07 // ExternalShocks SF CyberAttack.Signal.Shock_External 2.1654e-07 SF DataExfiltration.Signal.Shock_External 1.7328e-07 SF Cyber_Attack_Major.Signal.Shock_External 9.1457e-08 SF Pandemic_Exposure.Signal.Shock_External 1.5816e-07 SF Natural_Disaster.Signal.Shock_External 2.0492e-07 SF Geopolitical_Conflict.Signal.Shock_External 2.8173e-07 SF Terror_Attack.Signal.Shock_External 1.2048e-07 SF Supply_Disruption_Exogenous.Signal.Shock_External 2.4716e-07 SF ExternalShocks.PriceSignal.Price_Drop 1.9315e-07 // PriceFormation SF PriceFormation.PriceFormationOut.Price_Drop 1.3847e-07 // --- TF (transfer rates per interface) --- // Fundamentals internal TF ifRevToEps.Revenue_Miss 5.4127e-08 TF ifMarToEps.Margin_Compression 4.8052e-08 TF ifFcfToBs.Solvency_Concern 6.1483e-08 TF ifFcfToDiv.Solvency_Concern 3.9724e-08 TF ifRevToGuid.Revenue_Miss 4.2619e-08 TF ifMarToGuid.Margin_Compression 5.7318e-08 TF ifIrrToAcc.Fraud_Exposed 3.5916e-08 TF ifAudToAcc.Fraud_Exposed 6.4087e-08 TF ifEpsToFund.Revenue_Miss 4.7241e-08 TF ifBsToFund.Solvency_Concern 5.1629e-08 TF ifDivToFund.Solvency_Concern 3.7815e-08 TF ifGuidToFund.Guidance_Miss 6.8072e-08 TF ifImpToFund.Impairment_Charge 4.3186e-08 TF ifWcToFund.Solvency_Concern 5.5413e-08 TF ifAccToFund.Fraud_Exposed 3.0218e-08 // Operations internal TF ifQualToRec.Operational_Disruption 5.2384e-08 TF ifTrigToRec.Operational_Disruption 4.6017e-08 TF ifCustToMs.Revenue_Miss 6.3528e-08 TF ifScToOps.Operational_Disruption 5.8194e-08 TF ifProdToOps.Operational_Disruption 4.1075e-08 TF ifRecToOps.Operational_Disruption 3.8619e-08 TF ifMsToOps.Revenue_Miss 5.4752e-08 TF ifRndToOps.Revenue_Miss 6.1429e-08 TF ifCybToOps.Operational_Disruption 4.9283e-08 // Governance internal TF ifCeoToBoard.Management_Turnover 5.6418e-08 TF ifCfoToBoard.Management_Turnover 4.2051e-08 TF ifShToShPr.Reputation_Hit 6.1785e-08 TF ifRefToShPr.Reputation_Hit 3.8247e-08 TF ifBoardToGov.Management_Turnover 5.1039e-08 TF ifInsToGov.Management_Turnover 4.6712e-08 TF ifMnaToGov.Impairment_Charge 5.8416e-08 TF ifFrAllToGov.Fraud_Exposed 3.5029e-08 TF ifShPrToGov.Reputation_Hit 4.0518e-08 // MarketDynamics internal TF ifAnToRc.Rating_Downgrade 5.7248e-08 TF ifCrToRc.Rating_Downgrade 4.3615e-08 TF ifIdxToId.Liquidity_Dry 6.0127e-08 TF ifPeerToPg.Liquidity_Dry 3.7519e-08 TF ifRcToMkt.Rating_Downgrade 5.1872e-08 TF ifIoToMkt.Liquidity_Dry 4.9051e-08 TF ifSiToMkt.Liquidity_Dry 5.8473e-08 TF ifOpToMkt.Liquidity_Dry 4.1286e-08 TF ifIdToMkt.Liquidity_Dry 3.6018e-08 TF ifMoToMkt.Liquidity_Dry 6.4319e-08 TF ifPgToMkt.Liquidity_Dry 5.3742e-08 // Macro internal TF ifRateToIrs.Macro_Adverse 5.2816e-08 TF ifInfToInfS.Macro_Adverse 4.0927e-08 TF ifGdpToGdpC.Macro_Adverse 6.1483e-08 TF ifFxToFxS.Macro_Adverse 3.8752e-08 TF ifCommToComS.Macro_Adverse 5.6214e-08 TF ifCsToCsW.Macro_Adverse 4.3081e-08 TF ifIrToMac.Macro_Adverse 5.7419e-08 TF ifInToMac.Macro_Adverse 4.6182e-08 TF ifGdToMac.Macro_Adverse 5.1376e-08 TF ifFxToMac.Macro_Adverse 3.9015e-08 TF ifCoToMac.Macro_Adverse 6.2748e-08 TF ifCrmToMac.Macro_Adverse 4.4839e-08 // Regulatory internal TF ifLicToLr.Regulatory_Action 5.8724e-08 TF ifAppToLr.Regulatory_Action 4.1536e-08 TF ifAtToReg.Regulatory_Action 5.3082e-08 TF ifTxToReg.Regulatory_Action 4.7619e-08 TF ifTrToReg.Regulatory_Action 6.0274e-08 TF ifSaToReg.Regulatory_Action 3.8541e-08 TF ifEnToReg.Regulatory_Action 5.6019e-08 TF ifLiToReg.Regulatory_Action 4.2387e-08 TF ifLrToReg.Regulatory_Action 3.5728e-08 // ESG internal TF ifSmbToBo.Reputation_Hit 5.4917e-08 TF ifGwToGwMa.ESG_Failure 4.0628e-08 TF ifRpToGwMa.ESG_Failure 6.1874e-08 TF ifEsgToEsg.ESG_Failure 5.2451e-08 TF ifBoToEsg.Reputation_Hit 4.8019e-08 TF ifGwMaToEsg.ESG_Failure 3.7816e-08 TF ifHrToEsg.ESG_Failure 5.9725e-08 TF ifDpToEsg.Reputation_Hit 4.3127e-08 // ExternalShocks internal TF ifExtCyToCa.Shock_External 5.1284e-08 TF ifExtCyToDe.Shock_External 4.6518e-08 TF ifCaToCam.Shock_External 6.2917e-08 TF ifDeToCam.Shock_External 3.8541e-08 TF ifExtPaToPa.Shock_External 5.4276e-08 TF ifExtNdToNd.Shock_External 4.1039e-08 TF ifExtGpToGp.Shock_External 5.8192e-08 TF ifExtTeToTe.Shock_External 3.6824e-08 TF ifExtSdToSd.Shock_External 6.0418e-08 TF ifCamToExt.Shock_External 4.7251e-08 TF ifPaToExt.Shock_External 5.3816e-08 TF ifNdToExt.Shock_External 4.0129e-08 TF ifGpToExt.Shock_External 5.7482e-08 TF ifTeToExt.Shock_External 3.9058e-08 TF ifSdToExt.Shock_External 6.3175e-08 // Cluster aggregators to PriceFormation TF ifFundToPf.Price_Drop 5.1829e-08 TF ifOpsToPf.Price_Drop 4.3726e-08 TF ifGovToPf.Price_Drop 5.8094e-08 TF ifMktToPf.Price_Drop 3.7281e-08 TF ifMacToPf.Price_Drop 6.2415e-08 TF ifRegToPf.Price_Drop 4.5918e-08 TF ifEsgToPf.Price_Drop 5.0427e-08 TF ifExtToPf.Price_Drop 3.8672e-08 // PriceFormation to top-level OUTPUT TF ifPfToOut.Price_Drop 4.9258e-08